Three sets of data
The first set of data is that the number of private cars in China is now close to 100 million. Last year, there were 4 billion trips nationwide, 62% of which were self-driving tours, and 85% were individual tourists. This shows that our market is fundamentally has changed. A very prominent feature of China’s tourism is the massive feature. Any small percentage in China will face a huge absolute volume. Sometimes it is 1%, which is very small. 1% of China’s population is 13 million, so we have to see clearly this feature.
The second set of data shows that when self-driving travel develops to a certain extent, RVs will develop. The number of RVs in the United States exceeds 11.3 million, that in Europe is about 7.444 million, and that in China is less than 100,000. Such a huge gap is actually our future development space.
The third set of data is the campsites. So far, there are about 770 campsites in China. The National Tourism Administration plans to have 2000 campsites nationwide by 2020. What is the concept of 2000 campsites? That is, two and a half years from now, the growth rate will basically double. This is such a concept. Under such circumstances, we feel that the development is quite fast, but in fact it is far from enough in terms of total volume. There are 100 million private cars, assuming that 10,000 vehicles need a camp, China needs 10,000 camps, if a camp has 100 camps, 10,000 camps will provide 1 million camps, compared to our In terms of the number of 100 million private cars, this data is far from enough.
These three sets of data show that our self-driving cars, RVs, and camps are all facing a huge space for development.
a few questions
First, the path problem. There are two paths, one is to face and study international experience seriously, and then follow suit. The second is to combine China’s national conditions, explore our unique model, and create Chinese experience. I think we can’t walk down the first road, but we can walk down the second road. This requires us in China to be innovative in the development of self-driving cars, RVs and camps, and to highlight our creativity.
Second, policy issues. If we do not clarify the problem and do not start from the problem, many of our countermeasures may not be accurate. From the perspective of self-driving cars, the biggest problem now is the Golden Week. There is a policy of free highways during the Golden Week. This policy has some effects, but overall it has little effect, so it becomes only during the Golden Week. , Expressways across the country have turned into parking lots for self-driving cars. Basically, time is wasted on the road, and our expenses are also spent on the road. It seems that we have paid a few tolls less, but in fact it costs nothing. Not low. More importantly, the experience and quality of self-driving cars are extremely poor. This may be a big problem. This problem is not a problem of self-driving cars themselves, but a big policy issue. So one of my basic views is that the Golden Week should be cancelled, and what method should be adopted? It’s called time autonomy, national rotation. We can now consume money independently, but we are not independent enough in time consumption. In a country with a population of 1.3 billion, why does the State Council have to issue documents every year during vacations? There is no such phenomenon in the whole world. So if this problem is not solved, the congestion problem of self-driving cars will never be solved. That is to say, our citizens, especially self-driving tourists, will fall into a cycle of low-quality and poor experience for a long time.
Third, the organization of self-driving cars. There is an embarrassing situation in the self-driving club. The self-driving club should be registered as an association. Now the civil affairs department does not accept it. However, our self-driving car club is a service organization. According to the enterprise registration and business management regulations, no self-driving car club can survive. Now only a small number of self-driving clubs in the country have registered. There are probably more than 2,500 self-driving car clubs in the country. This is a small number. No matter how many, most of them are in a state of not being prosecuted by the people. This state is easy to handle under normal circumstances. Once an accident occurs, it is not good. manage. For example, how to deal with a major traffic accident? Who will take care of it? Are we capable? Doing things as a club, if the government departments come out to take care of it, you will feel very embarrassed. I think the biggest problem with self-driving car organizations is this.
With the development, there will be a series of new problems. We need to study where are the roots of these things?
So far, companies involved in self-driving cars, RVs and camps have not made much profit. If most companies in an industry do not make money, can they still develop? I can’t see it. From an international point of view, developed countries generally regard this matter as a semi-commercial and semi-public welfare organization, as a national welfare provided by the government. But the government does not need to directly operate these things, so some people build camps, the government land is free, and the basic prices of water, electricity, and gas are all preferential. Let developers come in and make a fuss on this basis, mainly relying on services. make money. Such an enterprise can only be a low-profit enterprise, not a huge-profit enterprise.
But now many of our camp developers operate the camp as a quasi-real estate, and the government also treats it as a quasi-real estate. Under such circumstances, it is unsustainable, let alone sustainable, and it will be difficult to develop. I am afraid that It is a very important question now. These categories now have the question of how to make money, what kind of business model and operation model to form. For example, the self-driving club is basically a service, and the issue of profitability is not considered. It is good to be able to maintain its own operation. Some clubs are relatively large, and everyone pays a little more, which may make life easier. Most self-driving clubs are one-off. Once there is an activity, it will be done once. If there is no activity, usually it can only be maintained by three or two people. All RV manufacturers and refitters in the country basically do not make money, because there is a threshold for economies of scale. Generally speaking, if there is an order of 500 RVs a year, they can make a profit. But now our RV manufacturers and refitters It is good to have an order of 200 vehicles a year, but everyone is still holding on, why? For looking forward to this prospect.
From the perspective of RV operators, those who sell RVs earn a little less money, but they generally share with the camp. Now developing camps, building camps, and operating camps, the entire operation is at a loss, but selling equipment and facilities may make a little money from sales. This is a primary model, and generally the industry eats itself. Therefore, I am afraid that the next step will not be able to go down by such a number of ways. This requires B2C, that is, we still have to serve consumers. However, under the current system and policy framework, it is difficult to do such a thing. A further step should be B2K, that is, those who do these operations must deal with capital and finally the government. But it must not be B2B, just eating ourselves, if we do this, we will not be able to do it.
The core of the industrial perspective is how to extend the industrial chain, expand the industrial scope, and form industrial clusters. At present, there are hundreds of industrial forms and operating forms related to self-driving cars and RVs, which means that new things are emerging one after another, and we must seize these new signs to open up new fields. In this way, the richer the format of business and the greater the possibility of profit, the industry may truly have corresponding vitality.
In the final analysis, the industry needs to create models based on scale. This is the massive feature of Chinese tourism that I have begun to emphasize. Therefore, it is easy for us to form a scale, create models with scale, and achieve effects with scale. In the next step, it may be difficult for such small-scale enterprises to survive, but there must be hope for enterprises that can achieve networked, high-growth, and asset-light enterprises. Therefore, the technical model is first involved here, because self-driving cars, RVs, and camps have relatively high technical content, relatively fast technology updates, and strong technical operation requirements, so the technical model is a foundation. The second is the operation model. It is not enough to rely on one family to do small things. It must be a networked operation model. In the future, a cluster model of camps will be formed, and a system model will be formed further.
For example, as a developer of campsites, you may set up 150 or 300 camps across the country. In this way, it is possible to form a good model and a systematic model. The last is the capital model. Anyway, these things come and go, whether they are large-scale or small-scale, they are inseparable from capital. Now the construction of large domestic camps relies on investment, and the construction of general camps is 20 to 30 million. There is no need for such a large investment in the Internet. We have no choice but to do so. Technology model, operation model, system model, and capital model will eventually form a combination model, which is China’s innovation model.
In the face of this big new field, the first point is that everyone is in his position and performing his duties.
The first category is local government. The local government mainly does land supporting, environmental construction, and community optimization. From the current point of view, because there is no clear policy for land support, last year it was regarded as commercial hotel land. If we look at it this way, none of our camps can be developed. There have been changes and adjustments recently. If you can rent forest land or land for public welfare, you will have development prospects, but you need to reform local land policies, and more importantly, improve the environment. Without a good natural environment, everyone will not go out , is it not good to stay at home? Going out to change the environment is to pursue a better environment. The third is community optimization. The relationship between local people and tourists has a process of change. They were very friendly at the beginning, but once they entered the market, their attitudes changed, and scamming is inevitable. After a period of time, everyone found that scamming is equal to Kill yourself, so you will gradually transform to community optimization.
The second category is the main industry sector, that is, the tourism bureau, including other industry sectors, should be standard implementation, market-driven, and quality assurance. This is not only the tourism department, but also the transportation department, the environment department, the forestry department, the land department, and the water conservancy department. A series of departments have this problem, and formulate corresponding standards to implement it, promote market development, and ensure quality at the same time.
The third category is community organizations. Community organizations should be a combination of self-organization and tourism organizations. Here we can no longer use the traditional so-called community organizations to look at it, it is more of a self-organization behavior. Shouldn’t we create a better environment and let the self-driving club operate well? Why do you have to care so much? In fact, we can’t control it, but we should take responsibility for things that happen, so what is the task of social organizations? Communicating information, setting standards, and ensuring smooth flow are the tasks of social organizations.
The fourth category is enterprises. Enterprises involve how to choose a model, how to build and invest, and achieve good operations and services.
The fifth category is consumers. Self-driving consumers should have higher requirements than ordinary consumers. They should be knowledgeable, experienced, judgmental, and ultimately happy.
If these five aspects can all be in their respective positions and perform their duties, many things will be easier to handle. In the end, to form a chain of development, it is to form a service chain around the demand chain of self-driving cars, and then form an operation chain and an industrial chain. Another aspect is long-distance expansion. One of the biggest benefits of self-driving cars is that they have legs. With legs, you can run, and the range you need to run is larger. Isn’t it old to talk about global tourism now? Self-driving global tourism is the first priority. Without the development of self-driving cars, global tourism is basically empty. We still maintain a major scenic spot in a county. Everyone goes there and goes there. Only self-driving cars can truly expand. Therefore, the pulling effect on the local area is greater. In this case, local raw materials, local labor force, and local products are needed to achieve local materials, local talents, local market formation, local appreciation, and local promotion. development of tourism. The construction of self-driving cars, RVs and campsites is the top priority of China’s tourism industry in the next step. It needs to be promoted reasonably to cultivate a new type of life and pursue national happiness.