12 trends in tourism development in 2019

With the development of our country’s economy, my country’s tourism industry has been on the road of rapid growth for more than 10 years. Except for the SARS in 2003 and the Asian financial crisis in 2008, the growth rate of my country’s tourism has basically remained at around 10, which is in line with the speed of my country’s economic development. basic match. However, since the Sino-US trade war in 2018, the Chinese economy has begun to expose a series of problems caused by its own economic overheating, and the Sino-US trade war has accelerated this process. Since May 2018, the alarm bells in various industries have continued. Constantly thundering, the GDP growth rate in the first quarter of 2018 was 6.9, the GDP growth rate in the second quarter was 6.7, the GDP growth rate in the third quarter was 6.5, and it will only be lower in the fourth quarter. The economic growth is slowing down, the employment rate is also falling, companies are laying off employees one after another, and the trend of bankruptcy of private enterprises is also coming as promised. According to Zhaopin’s “China Employment Market Prosperity Report” in the second and third quarters of 2018, the demand for recruitment decreased year-on-year. The side reflects the current wave of layoffs.

There has always been a certain lag between tourism development and economic development. Economic development has slowed down. The economic growth rate in 2018 has slowed down, and the decrease in disposable income will inevitably be reflected in consumption. The growth rate of tourism in 2018 has been stimulated by a series of The downturn (such as ticket price reduction, etc.) may not necessarily drop immediately, but the economic downturn will inevitably be reflected in 2019. In addition to the holiday system in 2019, it will not make up consecutive holidays. This will also have a certain impact on tourism, so 2019 The slowdown in annual tourism growth has become an inevitable trend.

The cold winter of the manufacturing industry will come first, followed by other industrial fields. In 2019, it will be the turn of the consumer field, and tourism is an important part of it. The winter of the tourism industry is approaching. Enterprises and individuals in the industry need to prepare to survive this winter. Aggressive investment and large-scale expansion are no match for the safety of the capital chain. When risks and opportunities coexist, pay more attention to risks. .

While the growth rate of the number of tourists is slowing down, the decline in per capita consumption of tourism has also become a trend. In 2015, the total number of tourists in the country was 4 billion, the total tourism revenue was 3.42 trillion yuan, and the average consumption per person per trip was 855 yuan; in 2016, the national The total number of tourists is 4.44 billion, the total tourism income is 3.94 trillion yuan, and the average consumption per person per trip is 887 yuan; in 2017, the total number of tourists in the country is 5.001 billion person-times, the total tourism income is 5.4 trillion yuan, and the average consumption per person per trip is 1080 yuan . Before 2017, the number of people and the average consumption per person increased significantly, but the economic slowdown since 2018 will inevitably affect the per capita consumption of tourism. It can be fully seen. In 2019, the growth rate of tourism slowed down and the per capita consumption of tourism decreased, but the number of new tourist attractions and new tourism projects did not decrease. This situation will inevitably lead to the dilution of the number of tourists in various scenic spots in 2019 and the decline in the profits of the tourism industry.

The decline in the profits of scenic spots not only comes from the increase in the number of scenic spots and the dilution of the number of tourists, but also from the reduction policy of scenic spot tickets implemented by the Development and Reform Commission since October 2018. The average drop in ticket prices by about 10 will reduce the number of existing scenic spots. The already meager profits have dropped again, and it is foreseeable that the annual reports of listed tourism companies in scenic spots and scenic spots in 2019 will be even uglier.

In recent years, the hotel industry has been impacted by the hotel industry, and its profit decline has become a conclusion. In 2016 and 2017, five-star hotels turned against the trend as a whole, reflecting the consumption upgrade trend since 2015, but 2018 is destined to be bleak One year, coupled with the implementation of the new tax system and the impact of strict social security regulations on labor-intensive industries, the economy will become more difficult in 2019. I believe that the life of the hotel industry will be even more difficult.

The profits of travel agencies have been further squeezed. Tmall Fliggy’s “Double Eleven” route pre-sales have reduced the profits of domestic routes to a minimum. In addition, travel agencies have to pay commissions and promotion fees to e-commerce companies. The profit is close to zero. In terms of international tourism, with the popularity of independent travel, the group travel of travel agencies in the Southeast Asian market has declined, and the group tour of Australia and New Zealand in the South Pacific has also declined. The proportion of independent travel in emerging markets such as North America, Europe, Middle East and Africa is also rapidly increase, and then replace the group travel of travel agencies. At present, the business of air tickets, hotels and scenic spots tickets of travel agencies has been greatly replaced by online travel e-commerce. The reduction of group travel in the future will further compress the space of travel agencies. Corporate travel agencies such as China International Travel Service, which has heavy assets such as duty-free shops, Hong Kong China Travel Service and CYTS, which have already transformed real estate and other asset-heavy fields, will gradually decline in their business, while small and medium-sized travel agencies that have not transformed will find it increasingly difficult to survive.

2019 is the iterative year of the tourism industry. The three original industries that support the tourism industry are facing a life-and-death crisis. Scenic spots are affected by the slow growth in the number of tourists and the decline in residential consumption. The industry continues to be impacted by the economic downturn and rising labor costs. Travel agencies are affected by the double impact of the narrowing of the original business scope and decreasing profits. In 2019, the survival of tourism companies will be more difficult. First, to survive, The second is that iterative development has become a problem that tourism companies must think about in 2019.

2016 and 2017 are the years of characteristic towns, and 2018 is the year of rural revitalization. A large amount of policy funds, preferential policies and social capital are pouring into the field of rural revitalization. Different industries can be selected in characteristic towns and through real estate, cultural tourism, Various forms such as industries are realized differently. Rural revitalization has fewer investment fields and fewer realizable paths. Therefore, it can be inferred that while rural revitalization has a wide range of funds entering through multiple channels, it corresponds to the lack of output channels. Due to its seasonality, agricultural products Due to the periodicity and market limitations, rural tourism has become one of the few optional paths when the added value of agricultural products in my country is not high and this path is not feasible.

However, since 2018, too many rural tourism projects have been promoted in the name of rural revitalization. As we all know, the basic plate of rural tourism projects is the local customer base, and the overall local customer base has not increased significantly, even under the general economic situation In the case of shrinking, the competition in rural tourism will inevitably increase. Judging from the current investment, the planning cost of a pastoral complex project or rural revitalization project is more than one million, and the investment is often hundreds of millions, but the output is very limited. It is the current norm that rural tourism projects are difficult to pay back. After blind investment in 2018, the essence of rural tourism will be gradually recognized by 2019. High investment and low output will inevitably lead to weak follow-up of the project. In 2019, characteristic towns are difficult to turn around. Newly added projects related to rural tourism, including pastoral complexes, revival of ancient villages, poverty alleviation tourism…Unless there are huge government funds or some enterprises are vertical projects, they will basically lose money. In 2019, such high-input, low-output projects will be seen clearly, and the probability of thunderstorms in early-stage investment projects is also very high.

Rural revitalization, all-for-one tourism, and the creation and upgrading of scenic spots are the last three hot areas of tourism planning companies. With the stagnation of rural tourism projects in rural revitalization, this business will also be lost. The all-for-one tourism business is also coming to an end. A. There are limited options for upgrading. Not only tourism planning companies are competing, but other planning companies are also vying for it. In 2019, there are not many choices for tourism planning companies, and the industry’s downturn has become an inevitable trend. If the tourism planning industry cannot go deep into the tourism operation itself and consider the planning and space implementation of the project as a whole with the thinking in front of the operation, then the space left for tourism planning will be narrower, and the government’s planned tourism planning will be less and less , The planning and planning that caters to corporate development and industry needs requires tourism planning companies to deeply cultivate the industry and continue to follow up. The superficial grand narrative cannot match the fine consideration of the market.

2018 is the year of Internet celebrity scenic spots. Among the many Internet celebrity scenic spots, a large number of Internet celebrity projects are popular, such as glass bridges, glass slides, swing bridges, infinity pools, light shows, etc. Internet celebrity projects are popular. There are many scenic spots, the most popular one is the glass bridge project, which can bring a 6-10 times increase in the number of tourists in some scenic spots, and some scenic spots can achieve more than 10 times the increase in the number of tourists. What is the fate of Red Project in 2019? In 2019, the popularity of Internet celebrity projects is no longer a big trend. The reason lies in homogenized projects and excessive supply. Taking Henan, the birthplace of China’s glass bridge, as an example, there are no less than 20 scenic spots in the Zhumadian area with glass bridge and slide projects. Glass bridges and glass slides have almost become must-have choices for scenic spots. Returning to zero, the scenic spot continues to compete on the same starting line, and the fight on the glass bridge of the scenic spot in the entire Henan area is very tragic. The same situation also exists in Qingyuan and other places. The launch of many glass bridge projects has made people accustomed to this project. Internet celebrity projects are based on the basic investment principles of precise market, rapid detonation, mass gathering, and rapid cashing out. Once the project cannot be cashed out quickly, its decline is inevitable. In 2019, there will still be Internet celebrity projects, but the attributes of Internet celebrities will further fade, and Internet celebrity projects will gradually return to the project itself.

2019 will also be a year for Lu Shen in the star field. Since 2017, the star field of tourism investment includes the homestay field, parent-child paradise and children’s paradise. The aura of the former has gradually faded, while the latter is the brightest star in 2018. , attracting a large amount of capital to enter. The director of a boutique homestay in Beijing sighed, “It is becoming more and more difficult for boutique homestays to recover their investment.” He entered the Beijing homestay market around 2013. At that time, it took one year to recover the investment. In 2018, it took about six and a half years to recover the investment. In the future, it will return to The return of the investment is around 10. This is still a successful boutique homestay investment. It is realized under strict control of labor costs and reasonable use of various investment methods. Homestay investors who do not have these capabilities will enter the industry immediately. The same story happened in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, Yunnan, and Hunan… The investment and output of homestays are far from equal. A small number of homestays can survive with difficulty, while most homestays fall into a situation where if they don’t continue to invest, their previous efforts will be wasted. If they continue to invest, there is no way forward. In this situation, the input and output are getting lower and lower, and it is getting more and more difficult to pay back. The field of homestay in 2019 is far from the “country homestay has great potential” exclaimed by experts in a certain forum, but the real “has pitfalls, enter carefully”.

2017 and 2018 are the beautiful moments for children in parent-child parks. Countless capitals are rushing in. Sunac, Wanda, Evergrande, Overseas Chinese Town… Parent-child parks have sprung up in various places, and many scenic spots are also actively introducing children’s parent-child parks. Such projects have been upgraded and upgraded to meet the needs of the local market. Many tourism companies like “Squirrel Paradise” entered this field in 2017 and 2018. They invested in that year and recovered their investment in that year. In 2019, with the introduction of more and more parent-child parks and children’s parks into the market, homogeneous scenic spots and similar projects, the intensification of competition among parks has become inevitable, and the decline in profits has become a trend. For example, there are currently more than ten parent-child parks in Chengdu, and the projects, facilities, and themes of each are similar. In the future, these parent-child parks and children’s parks will stage a brutal competition of “Eight Immortals crossing the sea, each showing their magical powers” when the market is saturated.

2018 is the end of the 20 years of China’s online tourism. The situation is changing and the heroes are divided. At the end of 2018, the listing of Tongcheng-Elong is ushered in, but it has nothing to do with the overall situation. It is the leader of online travel, but the pattern has quietly changed. In the country of the Internet, the cross-border threat of “destroying you, but it has nothing to do with you” has never stopped. Even a boss like Ctrip is facing the menacing threat of cross-border giants. Where, Meituan Dianping, and Ali Fliggy will present a clearer market structure in 2019, and scene migration will become an important means. Under the giants, the capital winter will bring the second and third echelons of online travel companies. Really tough times.

The reason why scene migration is very important is that as more and more apps are installed in mobile phones, many apps that are not used in scenarios will be discarded or even deleted, and apps in commonly used scenarios will be retained. Because Ctrip is the leader in the industry, and has linkage effects in hotels, aviation, scenic spots, travel guides, etc., and it is a leading company in the industry, it has a strong discount, so it can be retained in mobile phones. Ctrip’s total annual sales (GMV) in 2017 reached 600 billion, making it a well-deserved giant in the industry. Other online travel companies, such as Mafengwo, Tongcheng Elong, Tuniu, Lvmama, Zhongxin, etc. are far behind Ctrip in terms of information and SKU. After cross-border giants enter the tourism industry, the first pressure is these second Members of the echelon and third echelon face a huge possibility that the app will be deleted.

If catering and entertainment and other pan-leisure tourism are combined, the giant Meituan Dianping will come into view. Since 2015, Meituan Dianping has made efforts in hotels, scenic spots and other fields, and has achieved certain results. The good application scenarios of Meituan Dianping on the catering side have successfully kidnapped a large number of urban people, making it a must-have app for urban people. In the scene migration, the migration from catering to pan-tourism hotels and scenic spots is relatively smooth, and points General use, incentive coupon interaction, etc. can all bring good conversion effects. The migration of this kind of scene is very easy to be used. With a professional team, it can bring customers in a smooth and smooth way. An important reason why ticket sales agents counterattacked Ctrip. Therefore, although Meituan Dianping’s share in the current online travel market is not too high, its future efforts should not be underestimated. In the cold winter of capital in 2019, the intervention of such silent giants will add to the pressure on the industry.

The growth of Ali Fliggy relies on the Ali Group, which can fully enjoy the resources of the entire Ali system such as Ali Taobao, Tmall, Alipay, Ant Financial, Ali Baitiao, Jubei, and Huabei. In 2016, Ali Fliggy’s annual Total sales reached 100 billion. On Double 11 in 2018, the number of users who purchased travel products increased by 30% year-on-year. The sales of air tickets and business class products increased by 300% year-on-year. Under Ali’s overall ecosystem, customers can even borrow money half a year in advance to buy Fliggy products without paying interest. This has attracted a large number of young consumers during Double Eleven this year. A series of products, from Alipay to Huabei, With the direct access to consumers’ funds, Ali Fliggy’s deep involvement in online travel will bring earthquake-like effects to the entire online travel industry. In contrast, Lvmama’s “travel first, pay later” lacks sufficient financial support and lacks sufficient scene migration, and the meaning of marketing is more than the actual operation.

Ctrip and Qunar are overwhelming the online tourism market in 2018. Meituan-Dianping is actively migrating to the scene and intervening in this big cake in a timely manner, while Ali Fliggy is unabashedly aggressively attacking. The Big Three will be in 2019. In this market, there is a market competition with real guns and live ammunition. The second echelon and the third echelon, such as Tongcheng-Elong, Tuniu, Mafengwo, Lvmama, and Zhongxin Tourism, are facing a more brutal survival market. Integration and mergers will be staged in 2019, and members of the second and third echelons will continue to be integrated and merged. The era of the end of the pack will begin in 2019, and there will be no eggs under the giants.

The most frequently heard phrase in 2018 is “the future has come”. Especially in the field of VR, countless experts and scholars are advocating “future anxiety theory”. Is the future already here? At least in the field of tourism, “the future is yet to come”.

The VR field is undeniably a potential field that can be seen in the future, but by 2019, it will be difficult to realize investment in the VR field in the field of tourism. Currently, the immersive experience and holographic images brought by the VR field are still technically insufficient There are flaws, and it is difficult to achieve seamless connection in terms of experience, and it is also difficult to attract the attention of people other than the new generation. Therefore, VR product experience has a certain stable conversion rate in large shopping malls with tens of millions of traffic, but in scenic spots. In China, it is difficult to achieve such a large flow of people, and the lack of experience and leisure, the effect of introducing VR in scenic spots so far is not very satisfactory. 2019 is not a big year for the large-scale deployment of VR technology in the tourism industry. This trend has not yet come. A small amount of funds can enter the market to try out a little product, but if you invest heavily under the anxiety of “the future has come”, the loss outweighs the gain. More likely.

There are still many forward-looking fields, such as robot replacement, smart Internet of Things… The trends are very good. At a certain node in the future, these technologies may be able to shine, but at this node in 2019, The future is still in the future, and forward-looking projects still need careful research, test the market, and find out the rules.

The upsurge of overseas tourism has not diminished. In 2015, the number of outbound tourists was 117 million, with a total consumption of 104.5 billion US dollars. In 2016, the number of outbound tourists was 122 million, with a total consumption of 109.8 billion yuan. The annual number of outbound tourists is growing steadily, and the per capita consumption is more than 880 US dollars. The outbound tourist group is a stable growth market, and it is a high-consumption market. This is along with the middle class in China. Strong, to some extent, China’s economic growth continues, the growth of the middle class continues, and the demand for overseas travel will continue to increase. Even under the background of the Sino-US trade war in 2018, China’s tourism to the United States The fact that the number of tourists is still growing slowly illustrates this problem. North America, South America, Europe, and Middle East and Africa are still regions with a net increase in tourists. In 2019, the high-end market of overseas tourism will continue to grow, and there is still a lot of room for independent travel products based on this. This can be seen from the boom in overseas product sales of Alibaba Fliggy on Double Eleven in 2018.

With the continuous boom of overseas tourism, overseas tourism investment will also be magnificent in 2019. In addition, it has been 5 years since President Xi proposed the “Belt and Road” initiative. The economic ties between China and the countries along the “Belt and Road” have become increasingly close, which provides a good foundation for China to travel to countries along the “Belt and Road”. According to China Tourism Research According to the statistics of the Institute, the number of Chinese outbound tourists to countries along the “Belt and Road” has increased year by year, from 15.49 million in 2013 to 27.41 million in 2017, an increase of 77 in five years with an average annual growth rate of 15.34. The number of tourists has increased significantly. , It has also laid a good foundation for overseas tourism investment, especially tourism investment in countries along the “Belt and Road”. Backed by China’s huge market, rational use of cheap labor, natural resources, land, raw materials, etc. in countries along the “Belt and Road”, and enjoying local and international preferential tax and other policies, it will become the choice of many overseas investment companies. The other part of the capital deployed in Europe, America, Australia, New Zealand, and the Middle East and Africa will keep an eye on the growth potential of Chinese tourists’ tourism consumption demand in these regions in the future, deploy in advance, wait quietly, and slowly harvest.

Based on China’s huge customer base market, targeted overseas tourism investment has become a feasible option. Overseas investment based on this will continue to increase in 2019, but is limited by the country’s foreign exchange management System, this kind of investment will not explode out of order, but will show a trend of gradual increase. For example, South China tourism capital’s tourism investment in Southeast Asia is based on the huge outbound tourism market in South China. Guangzhou-Shenzhen is within a three-hour flight time from the entire Southeast Asia. Regions with beautiful scenery and political stability can all be potential investment locations. It takes about 2 hours to fly directly from Guangzhou to Manila. This is the reason why many Guangzhou capitals are starting to invest in tourism in the Philippines. However, overseas tourism investment in the “Belt and Road” also has relatively high risks, among which the risk of unsustainable policies caused by political instability is huge. Investing is a huge hit. Overall, China’s overseas investment in tourism will continue to expand in 2019, relying on the “Belt and Road Initiative” and relying on the flow of Chinese tourists to carry out an all-round layout.

In domestic tourism investment, the overall market downturn does not mean that there are no regional hotspots, nor does it mean that all horses are familiar with them. On the contrary, regional hotspots still have investment value. Looking at the rotation of tourism trends at the national level, we can see that The northwest tourism trend that started in the second half of 2018 has intensified.

Investment in regional hotspots has always been an important area of ​​tourism investment. For example, since 2015, benefiting from the rise of the Midwest, the projects deployed in Zhengzhou, Wuhan, Changsha, Nanchang, Chengdu, and Chongqing have all achieved very significant benefits. As of 2019, investment in regional hotspots still has great value. Grasping the main customer market, grasping the trend of the customer market in a timely manner, and accurately following up has become an important way of tourism investment. For example, in response to the spillover of the Pearl River Delta market, the Jiangxi-Shenzhen high-speed railway will be completed in 2020. Ganzhou has rich tourism resources and directly connects with the tourism market of 14 million people in Shenzhen. Before the high-speed railway is officially opened to traffic, Ganzhou has become a hot spot for regional tourism investment. , In 2017 and 2018, the cultural tourism real estate projects that bet on Ganzhou have been laid out one after another, and 2019 will be a year of large-scale entry. Similar situations are also happening in the Yangtze River Delta region and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. For example, around Huangshan in the Yangtze River Delta, with the further improvement of the landscape value of Huangshan and the further expansion of the Yangtze River Delta market, its leisure and health care value will increase in the future. In 2019, investment in the surrounding areas of Huangshan will still have a relatively large return. For example, in Yanqing District, a suburb of Beijing, the 2019 Beijing World Horticultural Exposition and the 2022 Winter Olympics (sub-venue) will be held in Yanqing one after another. The value of regional hotspots in the recreational belt around the city is also emerging, and more capital layout will be attracted in 2019. Similarly, in the periphery of other metropolitan areas, as long as the metropolitan area is still expanding, there will still be similar regional hotspots. There are many similar cases, and regional hotspots can often bring about a regional investment boom, which can lead to a more reasonable return on investment.

At the national level, after experiencing the popularity of tourism in Southwest China, especially in Guizhou in 2017 and 2018, tourism in Northwest China, especially in Xinjiang, came into focus again. Since 2018, we can clearly feel the popularity of tourism in Northwest China. From the colorful Danxia in Zhangye to the Chaka Salt Lake in Qinghai, new scenic spots have emerged as tourist hotspots. The annual tourist flow of Chaka Salt Lake was 1.3 million in 2015, 1.9 million in 2016, and 2.7 million in 2017. In 2018, it is estimated that there will be more than 3 million person-times, which is enough to show that the Northwest is hot. And the hot spot in Northwest tourism is Xinjiang. Summer tourism in Xinjiang has always been relatively popular, but since 2018, the number of tourists in summer, autumn and winter has hit a new high. This year has achieved very good returns, and it can be expected that this boom will continue in 2019, and more tourists will continue to flow into Northwest China and Xinjiang.

At present, the Northwest region is still in the initial stage of tourism development. The Northwest region, especially Xinjiang, has many world-class tourism resources, but lacks good tourism infrastructure and comprehensive tourism marketing promotion. It needs to be improved tourism services and integrated development. tourism operations. As far as the current stage is concerned, tourism investment in Northwest China is still in the stage of controlling resources. Large cultural tourism groups and tourism investors are facing a vast area. Take the initiative in the upsurge. The upcoming industry for the owners of local tourism resources in Northwest China, especially in Xinjiang, is a feast of valuation. If you have already intervened in advance, you can wait quietly in 2019 to let the valuation of your scenic spots fly for a while. The wind blows from the northwest, and resource control is the key to 2019.

Although the overall economic situation is grim, China’s economy is still moving forward in general. The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China pointed out that the current main contradiction is “the contradiction between the people’s growing needs for a better life and unbalanced and inadequate development”. Forward-looking, just like the current wave of parent-child paradise companies that have drunk their first soup, they have accurately grasped the policy of liberalizing the second child since 2013, followed this wave of second child wave and their own parent-child market Consumption upgrade trend. Therefore, it is very meaningful to grasp the trend and make arrangements in advance, even in a period of relative economic downturn.

What are the clear trends? Here are three:

The first is the consumption trend of the new generation. According to statistics in 2018, there are 174 million people born in the 1990s and 147 million people born in the 2000s. The new generation of people together support a large market of over 300 million people. This position is the most sensitive to Internet companies, so they have the most thorough research on the new generation, the most thorough guide to consumption, entertainment, animation, beauty, tourism, food… These themes have been used to the extreme by Internet companies, and with the help of Internet companies Iteration, in 2018, some enterprises in the tourism industry have successfully grasped a wave of trends, that is, Internet celebrity scenic spots and Internet celebrity projects. Ali Fliggy has seized the upsurge of the new generation of overseas free travel and achieved a large sales growth on Double Eleven. , Where will the consumption of the new generation turn in 2019? Tourism companies also need to stay close to the demand trends of the new generation and follow up in time.

The second obvious trend is the aging trend. In 2016, the total number of elderly people over 65 years old in my country was 150 million, accounting for 10.8% of the population. It is estimated that by 2020, my country’s population over 65 years old will reach 250 million. Therefore, the trend of aging in China is very significant, but until now, China is still A family pension is the mainstay of the operation. China’s aging trend has a huge demand for social pensions. The exploration of this field has been accelerating in recent years, but the supply gap is still huge, and the model exploration is still in progress. The tourism and leisure related to the elderly has so far remained at the relatively elementary level of sightseeing and shopping, and further development needs to be expanded.

The third is the consumption trend of healthy sports. The higher the level of economic development, the more attention people pay to their own health, and the more they are willing to invest more energy and funds in health care, medical care, health care, sports, and leisure that can improve their health. Compared with Europe, the United States, and Japan, my country’s market in these areas is still very small, and the future space is still huge. The plate of health, sports and leisure is very large. How to enter this professional plate, how to layout and harvest need to be explored.

Of course, there are still many trends emerging. The hotspots that have emerged have a large amount of capital chasing the layout, and there are more trends emerging, but they have not been displayed. These trends are obvious, but they are not just like a pig standing in the wind. In the early stage of refined exploration, we must pay special attention to operation exploration. The exploration of the operation team and operation model is the top priority. Only by laying a good team foundation in the early stage of exploration can we take off in the later stage; in the early stage of refined exploration, pay attention to resources End-to-end layout, key resources, key technologies, and key talents that play a decisive role in the trend field must be deployed in a timely manner. 2019 is a year of trend layout. For obvious trends, you can follow up from the resource side and the operation side at the same time, first enter with light assets, and then wait for the opportunity to make a leap.

In the period of tense economic situation and cold capital, grasping the market and precise marketing have become the necessary skills for the development of tourism enterprises. This is also the only way for regional development. For enterprises, cross-border alliances will become the mainstream. For regions, Integration of resources and group development is the mainstream.

For tourism companies, if they are prepared to grasp the tourism market and carry out precise marketing for the target market, they have to achieve cross-border cooperation, such as the combination of travel agencies, scenic spots, hotels and new media marketing and promotion is an imperative means. Tourism companies It is necessary to actively discover other needs of market attributes, and bravely make cross-border attempts. For example, travel agencies, based on the existing customer base, whether to carry out selective cross-border development according to the future needs of the crowd, such as cooperating with photography agencies to launch photography tours; cooperating with elderly care institutions to launch elderly care leisure tours; Institutional cooperation, launching event tourism… The scenic spot cooperates with new media on the basis of the existing customer base, and has achieved many Internet celebrity scenic spots in 2018; cooperates with training institutions, and derives parent-child education projects; cooperates with drone companies, animation companies The cooperation of groups and so on has produced many small group festivals… The hotel industry is not far behind, and cooperates with the Internet to produce Zhihu Atour Hotel; cooperates with cultural heritage and almost achieves the Great Wall Night…

On the regional level, all-for-one tourism brings cities and counties as the basis, local governments actively intervene, regional resource integration, group development, and unanimous externalization, forming strong tourism counties (districts) and strong tourism cities. Under the cold winter of 2019, this trend will intensify. After all, for most cities and counties that do not have world-class tourism resources, there is a high probability that the scenic spots will be hot when the region is hot, and the scenic spots will be cool when the region is cold. Like Luanchuan in Henan Province, Enshi in Hubei Province, and Huzhou in Zhejiang Province… such strong tourism counties (districts) and strong tourism cities, under the leadership of the government, the entire city, county (district) is united in one mind, united in action, obeys the command, attacks collectively, and jointly develops in this current situation. stage is more efficient. In 2019, regional overall operations will continue, making inter-regional competition more intense. However, this kind of government-led development is not a panacea. Excessive stimulation often overdraws the development potential, and competition with regions as the main body will test the leader’s understanding, control and precise operation of tourism.

2018 is the first year of the integration of culture and tourism. On March 13, 2018, the institutional reform plan of the State Council proposed, “Integrating the responsibilities of the Ministry of Culture and the National Tourism Administration, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism will be established as a component department of the State Council. The Ministry of Culture, National Tourism Bureau”. On August 15, 2018, the “Regulations on the Functional Configuration, Internal Organization and Staffing of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism” (“Three Determination Plans”) was released. As of December 14th, all 31 provincial (city) culture and tourism departments (committees) in the country have completed the listing, marking that before the arrival of 2019, the integration of culture and tourism at the government level has been fully completed, and the deeper integration of culture and tourism will Start exploring in 2019.

The integration of culture and tourism is bound to be a big trend in 2019, because from the perspective of the cultural industry, China’s cultural industry accounted for about 5% of GDP in 2017. This data is 20% in the United States. In terms of cultural output, China’s proportion is far behind that of the country. Economic ranking, “2017-2022 China Cultural and Creative Market Development Prospect Forecast and Investment Strategy Research Report” pointed out that the market share of the global cultural and creative industry in 2017, the United States accounted for 43% of the total market, Europe accounted for 34% of Asian and South Pacific countries Accounted for 19% (of which Japan accounted for 10% and South Korea accounted for 5%), China and other countries and regions accounted for only 4%. channel. On the other hand, after more than 40 years of development, tourism has reached a bottleneck, that is, there is no strong IP system and wide recognition from the world, making it difficult for China’s tourism to go global. The integration of culture and tourism has found a good promotion channel and consumer market for the cultural industry, and found the source of content production for the tourism industry. In the future, in the cultural and tourism industry chain, the front end will open up content production, and the middle and back ends will have cultural enterprises and tourism. Enterprises carry out industrial layout and derivative product production to form a good closed loop, which is a trend.

The integration of culture and tourism in 2019 will start from the most basic cultural products and cultural promotion in scenic spots. The Forbidden City culture has taught a good lesson for the development of cultural tourism at the end of the year. Design, cultural community building and other aspects have made very useful explorations. The market in this area is still huge in the future. People who are locked in the culture and shrinking in the tourism industry need to join hands to open up the market. The activation of cultural projects and the creation and inheritance of IP will become important areas for the integration of culture and tourism in 2019.

In the initial stage of tourism development, resources must be the king. Whoever has excellent tourism resources and certain transportation conditions can realize the dream of earning money while lying down, collecting tickets while lying down, increasing the value of land lying down, and laying down equity shares. Premium… This can be seen in miniatures in a large number of well-known Chinese scenic spots such as Phoenix, Shangri-La, Huangshan, Taishan, etc., even in Guizhou before 2016. Controlling resources is the most important means in the initial stage of tourism development . However, high-quality resources are always limited. In the upsurge of tourism development, a large number of scenic spots with average resources and locations have emerged. They cannot rely on resources to make money, so they have to work hard to operate. Old scenic spots are slack in operation. It is easy to be overtaken. For example, the four famous mountains in Guangdong and the five lakes and seas in Shenzhen. These scenic spots that took advantage of the resources in the past have mostly declined in the end. Whoever has a better operation will live a more nourishing life, and operation is king is the inevitable direction for the future development of scenic spots. However, travel agencies, hotels, and tourism transportation have long entered the stage where operations are king, and operations determine life and death.

In the future, the winter of the tourism industry is coming, and fighting for operation will become the choice that all enterprises have to face. There are different levels of operation. At the current stage, it is still the initial stage of operation, that is, traffic is king. 2019 is still the stage when traffic is king. Because the consumption level of the people across the country has not yet reached a higher level, according to the statistical data in 2017, the per capita tourism consumption is 1080 yuan, of which tourism consumption such as tourism transportation, tourism accommodation, tourism tickets, tourism catering, tourism shopping, etc. are allocated , it can be found that every item of funds that can be used for expenditure is stretched, which is also an important reason for regional tourism marketing, such as free high-speed tolls, free entrance fees, etc., which greatly stimulate tourists to go to the local area. In this context, flow is fundamental and foundational. Having flow can at least guarantee basic ticket income, accommodation income, and tourism traffic income. On the basis of flow guarantee, middle and high-end consumer groups can be screened out. Therefore, in 2019 Tourism companies are still able to survive only by gaining traffic. Once the foundation of traffic is gone, just like the decline in the number of tourists in the ancient city of Lijiang, the direct consequence will be the decline of the ancient city’s business model, and it will be difficult to screen out high-level tourism demand. It is also reasonable for projects such as art towns to go bankrupt.

Whether it is mastering online channels, offline channels, community building, or relationship marketing, companies should cherish the traffic obtained in any way, and expand the traffic channels as much as possible, so that the traffic will not be used by a certain party. limited by the method. Only with enough traffic can we use operational thinking to carry out the secondary conversion of traffic on the basis of traffic. For example, in scenic spots, if there is enough traffic, it will first be displayed on the tickets, and then it can be charged through scenic traffic, scenic catering, and scenic spots. Projects, accommodation in scenic spots, shopping in scenic spots and other ways to achieve secondary elimination. If there is traffic, it is possible, if there is traffic, there will be dissemination, and if there is traffic, there will be influence. This general trend will not change in the next 2-3 years.

In 2019, the market is changing, the tourism industry is undergoing transformation and upgrading, products are iterating, aggressive investment will be punished, and intensive cultivation will accumulate effects. This is neither the best era nor the worst era. It is an era of hard work, working hard for the health, order, refinement, and comfort of the industry, and working hard for the industry to have enough food and clothing.